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Big announcement from the last two weeks that local journalist Tina Brown will be running with backing from the Teals
@Hawkeye I don’t rate her chances as particularly good tbh.
Liberal hold.
This seat is now a better prospect for an IND win than North Sydney was in 2022 – though of course that is after the Liberal primary has already taken an 8% hit so one wonders how much more there could be – another 5-7%? Could be enough to lose.
Although the 2PP margin is less than North Sydney was, the Labor primary vote is lower, therefore easier to get into second and watch the preferences flow home.
Could be one to watch. The cut of 2.3% 2PP margin via additional of the Hornsby booths may have moved this into an IND sweet spot.
I sense Julian Leeser will hold.
@Insider, interesting point. The narrower margin now could be because the trough following a hit to the Liberal primary vote. The ship has sailed for the teal candidate. Add to that, moderate liberals are probably fans of Leeser.
There are teal-ish areas along the eastern edge of the electorate i.e. along Pennant Hills Road and the Northern (Train) Line as well as the Pacific Motorway.
Julian Leeser will easily hold.
I saw in the AFR today that Heather Ruddock, the wife of Philip Ruddock, is openly endorsing Tina Brown – the teal candidate. Heather quit the Liberals last year after Philip lost preselection for the Hornsby mayoralty.
Interesting Labor votes best in.epping and hornsby
No idea why this wasn’t a teal target in 2022 – perhaps it really was the case no strong candidate came forward for Climate 200 funding.
Greens actually do reasonably well here and would have some profile from local government, and Labor have pockets of strength too. But the same is true of the Eastern Suburbs and Northern beaches. The narrative that only a teal can beat the LNP checks out and combines with the aforementioned cracks in the Liberals base, and Dutton potentially having an even worse image than Morrison here.
If Bradfield is winnable for teals then so is this seat.
I don’t think it’s hard to understand why this wasn’t a teal target.
The teals had six main targets in 2022 which was a lot! The fact that they won them all can make us forget what a perfect result that was. Spreading their resources further out wouldn’t have helped them achieve that goal.
Berowra is a bit interesting but I think it’s much less attractive for the teals than Bradfield.
I think Bradfield should’ve been more a serious teal target in 2022 if Climate 200 wanted a more inland pickup. I agree with Ben that Bradfield is more of a target. The teal candidate has been campaigning for years and plus the Liberal, Paul Fletcher, is retiring.
Berowra has teal-ish areas (as I mentioned above) but the semi-rural areas north of Dural are solidly Liberal.